Year: 2016 – 2019
Duration: 3 years
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is the only region in the world in which crime rates have risen over the past decades (World Bank, 2014). The criminal activities fueled in LAC countries by drug trafficking and gangs dampen the potential they have for economic growth and prosperity. Local and international organizations have designed and implemented projects to address this problem. However, there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of these interventions.
Limestone Analytics is hired to assess the feasibility of a crime prevention program in Honduras and El Salvador. This program intends to reduce crime through training at-risk youth and providing them with alternative pathways: higher education, employment, and entrepreneurship. Given the shortage of evidence on effectiveness of such programs, the feasibility analysis includes the design and implementation of an evaluation on an ongoing implementation of this program. The evaluation focuses on addressing the following questions:
- Did the program accomplish its stated goals?
- Is the Theory of Change validated?
- Why were effects different for some participants than others?
- How can we improve the design so that future implementations of the program can achieve more impact?
- How are the program distributed over time?
- How can costs be different from one location to another?
The feasibility analysis will use the results of the evaluation to answer a broader set of questions:
- Did total costs exceed total benefits?
- Did the program offer good “Value-for-Money”?
- Is the program suitable for results-based financing?
- How sustainable and scalable is the program?
Situation Analysis – 2016/17
- Conducting a comprehensive situation analysis
- Developing the first draft of an integrated feasibility model
- Comparing alternative measures of impact
- Assessing opportunities for results-based financing (preliminary)
- Highlighting key knowledge gaps
Evaluation: Baseline – 2017/18
- Designing of a quasi experimental evaluation to address knowledge gaps
- Developing instruments and sampling framework
- Training of enumerators for baseline data collection
- Monitoring data quality
- Analyzing data and developing baseline report
Feasibility: Update – 2018
- Documenting changes to theory of change
- Adjusting the feasibility model assumptions
- Feedback on alternative implementation strategies for a future implementation
Evaluation: Endline – 2018/19
- Updating the instruments and sampling guidelines
- Training enumerators for endline data collection
- Monitoring data quality
- Analyzing data and developing evaluation report
Feasibility: Final – 2019
- Updating the integrated feasibility model using the lessons learnt
- Assessing the social feasibility of the intervention
- Assessing the institutional and financial feasibility
- Recommendations on opportunities for results-based financing
- Recommendations on optimal design strategy (locations, beneficiaries, interventions, implementing partners, etc.)