Project: Scenario Planning for COVID-19 Recovery in Malawi

Limestone undertook a scenario planning exercise on behalf of the Malawi National Planning Commission as the Commission was taking the first steps to prepare the country’s COVID-19 recovery plan.  Through a qualitative survey, Limestone sought a diverse range of local opinions on the most important issues facing Malawi over the next five years.  Two critical issues were identified; those formed the primary framework in which four scenarios were developed. We then further analyzed certain issues in each scenario through quantitative modeling.   The resulting “future stories” were not predictions of what would happen; instead, by presenting a range of plausible future paths, they highlighted issues, concerns, and possibilities that the National Planning Commission could take into account as their COVID-19 recovery plan took shape.

The team brought a quantitative method to add estimates of national income and employment income for each scenario using the STUDIO model developed by Limestone Analytics. STUDIO factors for the interlinkages among sectors when estimating the impact of a shock on output and employment. For more information about STUDIO, please check the academic paper attached to this page.

Clients / Partners

Timeline

September-October

2020

Gather and analyze qualitative data
November

2020

Build scenarios, add quantitative modeling
December

2020

Stakeholder feedback, finalize scenarios