Project: Mozambique Land Backfill Evaluation-based Cost-Benefit Analysis (ECBA)

Reassessing land investments in Mozambique with evidence from the ground

Land tenure reforms are critical to reducing poverty and driving economic growth, but only if they work. As the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) looked back on its Land Tenure Services Project in Mozambique, it needed to understand whether the investment delivered the benefits originally expected.

The Limestone Analytics team conducted an evaluation-based cost-benefit analysis (ECBA), using fresh data from independent evaluations to update MCC’s original projections. First, Limestone reviewed the evaluation results and the previous CBA and identified key opportunities to introduce (or backfill) key methodological and parametric changes that might affect the impacts of the investment. With MCC’s approval, Limestone then rebuilt the project’s economic model from the ground up, integrating new evidence on outcomes, costs, and assumptions. The result was a detailed, transparent analysis of what changed and why.

For MCC, conducting an ECBA is more than just an exercise in accountability. It’s a tool for learning. By comparing projected benefits with real-world results, MCC can improve how it designs, manages, and adjusts future investments. ECBAs also reveal which assumptions hold up over time and which ones need revisiting, strengthening the agency’s evidence base for decisions across sectors and countries.

Limestone’s analysis helped quantify the long-term impact of land reforms on income, productivity, and equity. It also identified where expected benefits did not materialize, informing future strategies in land tenure and property rights.

Delivered in close coordination with MCC and guided by its rigorous standards, this work helps ensure that investments in land and livelihoods rest on a robust, data-informed foundation.