Project: Independent Peer Review – Analysis of Indonesia’s Financial Markets Development

Strengthening investment decisions to unlock infrastructure finance in Indonesia

Good investments start with sound evidence. As part of the $698 million Indonesia II Compact, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is working to transform Indonesia’s underdeveloped financial sector, helping unlock capital for infrastructure and small businesses. But before committing millions to innovative blended finance models, MCC needed to ensure that the economic case was watertight.

The Limestone Analytics team provided an independent peer review of the economic models underpinning the Financial Markets Development Project (FMDP). This project aims to mobilize private investment for high-impact infrastructure such as municipal hospitals, electric buses, and transit hubs by de-risking deals through blended finance. We scrutinized four cost-benefit models representing sample investments, each designed to demonstrate the potential of this approach.

Our role was to validate the economic logic and verify the calculations behind these models. That meant checking every formula, stress-testing assumptions, and ensuring the analysis reflected MCC’s rigorous standards and real-world market conditions. We also reviewed the methodology used to roll up project-level impacts into a portfolio-wide assessment.

The result? A more robust, credible economic foundation for MCC’s largest blended finance initiative to date. Our work helped ensure that projected returns were grounded in evidence, supporting smarter, more sustainable development finance decisions.

Delivered in close partnership with MCC’s Indonesia team and model authors, this peer review helped advance a project that could reshape how infrastructure gets financed in emerging markets.